most of our green power comes from wind. I met someone from CSIRO the other day who said that because wind is so unpredictable, the NEM people don't really work it into their production planning. Until we have good storage and/or a smart grid with smart appliances (or grid connect car batteries) this could limit the usefulness of wind power. Better to just use as little as possible power, then make it green.
Secondly, if you leave it till your existing hotwater breaks down, it might be weeks before you can get your solar hot water installed. Better to plan that investment ahead.
I've had some positive experience with instantaneous electric - so if you have a need for some but not much hot water that can be a pretty efficient way to go.
Thanks for the suggestion about the instantaneous electric. I'm thinking of going down that track, and it was also the conclusion of the Home Energy Advice Team when I spoke to them about it (I have too much shaded roof on the north side to make solar hot water worthwhile).
The only problem is I need hot water at two ends of the house. I know you can buy a recirculating pump that gets the hot water where you need it before you turn on the tap, but I worked out it would cost almost as much as buying two instantaneous hot water systems. But if I install two hot water systems, they have to run a gas pipe under the length of the house from the gas meter - not sure I'm keen on that. So maybe I'll start with one instantaneous hot water system and see how it goes.